Should You Wait for the Market to Crash? Why That Strategy Could Cost You
Is it smart to wait for home prices or interest rates to drop before you buy or sell?
While it might feel tempting to wait for a “market crash” or for mortgage rates to fall back into the 5% range, the data shows that strategy could cost you more than it saves—especially in markets like Frisco, TX and the surrounding suburbs, where pricing has remained stable this year.
Why Waiting Doesn’t Always Pay Off
Some buyers are sitting on the sidelines hoping for a major price drop or a return to ultra-low interest rates. But the latest Q4 2025 outlook from Fannie Mae suggests otherwise:
- Home prices are expected to rise modestly—about 2.5% nationally in 2025, and another 1.3% in 2026.
- Mortgage rates are forecast to gradually decline, but only slightly—from around 6.25% today to about 5.9% by late 2026.
(Source: https://www.fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast/economic-developments-october-2025)
That means if you’re waiting for a crash, you’re likely waiting for something that isn’t coming.
What That Means for You
In Frisco and nearby areas, we’re not seeing prices fall. Pricing has remained stable this year, and even modest national gains may continue to push prices slightly higher.
Here’s how the numbers stack up if you buy now vs. wait a year:
| Scenario | Purchase Price | Interest Rate | Monthly Payment* | Difference Over 1 Year |
| Buy Now (2025) | $615,000 | 6.25% | ~$3,029 (P&I) | — |
| Wait Until 2026 | $630,000 | 5.90% | ~$2,989 (P&I) | +$15,000 more upfront |
*Estimates assume 20% down payment and standard loan terms.
Even if the monthly payment is slightly lower next year, the higher upfront cost and total interest paid over time could wipe out the savings. Plus, you risk missing out on properties that fit your goals today.
Don’t Try to Time the Market—Plan Around It
There’s no perfect time to buy or sell. The right time is when you’re financially ready and have the right strategy in place. What matters most is acting with a plan—based on your personal scenario, not market speculation.
Let’s Make a Smart Move Together
When you’re working with a team that knows the Frisco housing market inside and out, you gain clarity on when and how to take action—whether buying or selling.
Have Questions About Buying or Selling?
Schedule a call with The Kaitlin Lovern Real Estate Team. We’ll walk you through your options and help you work the current market in your favor.
Visit www.kaitlinlovern.com to get started.
