Collin County Market Update: Prices are slightly up YTD, but homes are taking much longer to sell—so your 2026 sale price is more about pricing + prep + strategy than assuming “last year’s number.”
When you ask “How’s the market?” you’re really asking two things:
- How long would it take to sell my home?
- How much would my home sell for?
Here’s the early-2026 reality for Collin County (North Dallas) resale homes: pricing hasn’t collapsed, but the pace has slowed—which changes how you win the best price.
The fastest way to answer “Will I get last year’s number?”
If your home is well-prepped and priced to today’s buyer, you can still sell strong in Collin County—but if you price off 2021–2022 expectations (or even early-2025 vibes), you’re more likely to chase the market with price reductions.
That’s consistent with local/public data showing meaningful price-cut activity and more negotiation room than during the peak frenzy.
What your MLS YTD stats say (the part most people miss)
Your MLS YTD numbers tell a very “2026” story: prices are edging up, but the time-to-sell jumped.
Collin County MLS (YTD) snapshot you provided
| Metric | 2024 YTD | 2025 YTD | 2026 YTD | Change (2024 → 2026) |
| Avg Sales Price | $603,057 | $611,298 | $616,288 | +$13,231 (+2.2%) |
| Avg Days on Market | 33 | 38 | 51 | +18 days (+54.5%) |
Translation: You’re not seeing a price crash—you’re seeing a slower market. And slower markets reward the sellers who price precisely and remove friction (condition, presentation, buyer incentives).
Why “prices softening” can be true… and you can still sell for a great number
In a shifting market, headlines can feel contradictory because both things can happen at once:
- County averages can hold up (your YTD average price is up),
- while more individual sellers cut price because they started too high, or because buyers have more choices.
For example, one Collin County spotlight noted a majority of sellers cutting prices in late 2025, even while the county remained pricier than much of Texas.
And Realtor.com data for Collin County showed homes selling below asking on average in October 2025—more negotiating room than the peak seller’s market.
So the better question isn’t “Are prices up or down?” It’s:
“Where will my home land—top of the range or middle of the pack?”
That depends on four things you can control:
- Price position (how you compare to current competition, not old comps)
- Condition (repairs + cleanliness + “move-in ready” feel)
- Presentation (photos, staging, and marketing)
- Terms (closing flexibility, concessions, rate buydown, etc.)
The “last year’s number” trap (and how to avoid it)
A lot of sellers anchor to last year’s peak comp and assume they’ll “try that first.”
In a market where days on market have climbed, that approach can cost you money because the first 1–2 weeks is when you get the strongest buyer attention. If you miss that window, you often end up doing reductions later—after buyers have already compared you to everything else.
You’re seeing the slowdown in your own YTD DOM jump (33 → 51). Public tracking in nearby North Dallas also shows longer timelines versus a year earlier.
Rule of thumb: In slower conditions, the “test high” strategy becomes the “chase low” strategy.
What “softening” looks like in real life in Collin County and North Dallas
Here’s what sellers commonly experience when the market cools from hot → normal:
You can still sell fast if you’re the obvious best choice
Some homes still go pending quickly, especially if they’re:
- updated where it counts (kitchen/baths, paint, flooring),
- priced to match current competition,
- and marketed correctly.
But average homes take longer
Longer DOM doesn’t mean your house won’t sell—it means buyers feel less urgency. And when urgency drops, negotiation increases.
Rates matter, but they’re not the whole story
Mortgage rates affect affordability and buyer psychology. As of January 8, 2026, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.16% (down from 6.93% a year earlier).
That helps, but buyers are still price-sensitive—so the homes that feel “overpriced for what it is” sit.
So… how much would your home sell for?
If you want a reliable estimate (not a guess), the process should look like this:
1) Start with a “today comps” range (not last year)
Pull the most recent closed sales (ideally last 30–90 days) in your neighborhood—then adjust for:
- condition and updates,
- lot/location,
- layout and functional obsolescence,
- and any “must-haves” buyers are paying up for right now.
2) Cross-check against current active competition
In a slower market, your true competitor is what’s active today, not what sold months ago.
Ask: If a buyer sees my home and the top 3 alternatives this weekend, do I clearly win on value?
3) Decide your pricing strategy based on your goal
- Max price strategy: price within the “buyer excitement band,” create urgency, reduce negotiation.
- Timeline strategy: price aggressively, aim for faster offer + smoother appraisal.
- Minimal hassle strategy: choose pricing + terms that remove objections (repair credit, closing flexibility, etc.).
4) Build your “net sheet reality check”
In Collin County right now, you’ll often do better by protecting your net than fighting to protect your list price. Small concessions can prevent bigger reductions later.
How long would it take to sell in early 2026?
Your MLS YTD days-on-market number is the clearest signal: 51 average DOM so far this year—up sharply from prior years.
Practically, that means you should plan for:
- Prep time: 1–3 weeks (repairs, paint, photos)
- Market time: ~3–8+ weeks depending on price/condition/competition
- Contract-to-close: often 3–5 weeks (varies by financing)
And yes—some homes will still go fast. But the “typical” experience is less instant than 2021–2022.
5 seller moves that protect price in a slower Collin County market
If you want the best shot at “last year’s number” (or close), do these:
- Price for today’s buyers, not yesterday’s headlines
- Fix the obvious (small repairs, paint touch-ups, lighting, landscaping)
- Make the first 10 photos undeniable (professional photography is non-negotiable)
- Plan for negotiation (concessions or a rate buydown can beat a price cut)
- Launch like it matters (your first 7–10 days are your leverage window)
FAQ for Collin County resale sellers
Should I list now or wait until spring?
If your home will show its best in spring, waiting can help. But if you’re already market-ready, listing sooner can mean less competition from the spring rush. Rates also matter—Freddie Mac’s weekly trend is worth watching.
Are price reductions “normal” now?
They’re more common than during the frenzy because buyers have more options and sellers are testing higher prices. Local reporting showed a majority of Collin County sellers cutting list prices in late 2025.
What’s the single biggest factor in getting top dollar right now?
Being the best value in your price bracket the week you hit the market. In a slower pace environment, buyers compare more homes and negotiate more—so positioning matters.
Bottom line: Will you get last year’s number?
In Collin County / North Dallas, you can still sell for a strong price—your own MLS YTD stats show prices holding up. But because homes are taking longer to sell, you’ll get the best outcome by treating pricing and prep like a strategy, not a guess.
If you want, the Kaitlin Lovern Real Estate Team can put together a quick, no-pressure “two-number” plan for your home:
- Your likely sale price range in today’s market
- Your realistic timeline to sell (and what would speed it up)
Kaitlin Lovern Real Estate Team
