A More Balanced, More Predictable Market Takes Shape in Collin and Denton Counties
Executive Summary
The 2026 housing market in North Dallas is shaping up to feel calmer, steadier, and more understandable than the past few years. National economists are forecasting a return to balance, while local data from Collin and Denton Counties shows strong incomes, continued population growth, and improving alignment between buyers and sellers. Inventory has rebuilt, pricing has adjusted, and sales activity has stabilized. For local consumers, this creates an environment where decisions are driven less by urgency and more by clarity, strategy, and understanding how national trends actually play out right here at home.
The National Story: From Volatility to Stability
After years of rapid shifts, national housing economists are not predicting another frenzy in 2026. Instead, forecasts from the National Association of Realtors and Realtor.com describe a market that is gradually finding its footing again.
Their shared outlook points to:
- Mortgage rates easing modestly from 2025 levels
- Buyer demand slowly returning as affordability improves
- Sales activity rebounding from suppressed 2024 and 2025 volumes
- Home prices stabilizing after recent corrections
Rather than sharp swings, economists expect 2026 to feel more functional. That shift alone changes how buyers and sellers experience the market.
Why North Dallas Continues to Tell a Stronger Local Story
National headlines rarely reflect what is happening on the ground in Collin and Denton Counties. Entering 2026, local fundamentals remain a source of strength.
Employment Is Normalizing, Not Weakening
As of Q3 2025:
- Collin County unemployment was approximately 4.2%, up modestly from late 2024
- Denton County unemployment was approximately 4.0%, also showing a small year-over-year increase
These levels reflect a labor market cooling from historic tightness, not a market under stress. Both counties remain near long-run unemployment norms.
High Household Incomes Continue to Support Demand
Using the most current official Census and ACS data available through 2023:
- Collin County median household income: $117,588
- Denton County median household income: approximately $108,185
These figures remain among the highest in Texas and continue to support long-term housing demand, even in a higher-rate environment.
Population Growth and Migration Remain Tailwinds
Both counties continue to attract new residents and income:
- Collin County recorded positive net in-migration of several thousand residents
- Denton County experienced net in-migration totaling tens of thousands of residents over recent multi-year periods, along with a net gain of approximately 5,000 households and $765 million in adjusted gross income
This steady inflow of people and earnings helps explain why North Dallas has remained more resilient than many U.S. markets.
What the MLS Data Shows Heading Into 2026
Inventory Has Rebalanced the Market
From 2024 to 2025, active listings increased meaningfully.
Collin County
- Active listings climbed above 7,500 during mid-2025
- Ended 2025 at 5,411 active listings, still well above early 2024 levels
Denton County (Frisco, Little Elm, Prosper, Celina)
- Active listings peaked above 1,500 during mid-2025
- Ended 2025 at 1,075 active listings
This growth in inventory reduced urgency and created healthier conditions for both buyers and sellers.
Prices Adjusted and Sales Activity Followed
Median Prices
- Collin County: $490,950 in 2024 to $460,000 in 2025
- Denton County: $569,000 in 2024 to $540,000 in 2025
Sales Volume
- Total sales increased from 19,304 in 2024 to 20,250 in 2025
These price adjustments helped unlock demand and are a key reason economists expect steadier momentum entering 2026.
Days on Market Reflect a More Thoughtful Pace
Median days to sell rose:
- Collin County: 28 days in 2024 to 40 days in 2025
- Denton County: 32 days in 2024 to 47 days in 2025
Months of inventory frequently ranged between 4 and 6 months, with occasional peaks near 7 months, signaling a balanced market rather than a stalled one.
What This Means for You in 2026
If You Are Buying or a First-Time Buyer
This market rewards preparation over pressure:
- More inventory and more choices
- Less competition than the ultra-tight years
- Mortgage rates that softened toward the mid-6% range by late 2025
For many buyers, 2026 offers the ability to think strategically, negotiate thoughtfully, and move forward with confidence.
If You Are Selling
Homes are still selling, but the path to success is more intentional:
- Buyers are more selective
- Pricing accuracy matters more than ever
- Well-presented homes continue to attract serious interest
Sellers who align with current conditions are still achieving strong outcomes, just without the chaos of recent years.
If You Are an Investor
Opportunity remains, but discipline is essential:
- Deals must stand on solid fundamentals
- Rent assumptions, cash flow, and exit strategies must be realistic
- The math needs to make sense from day one
This market favors investors who rely on analysis rather than speculation.
If You Are a Homeowner With No Immediate Plans
Stability is the defining theme:
- Prices adjusted rather than collapsed
- Income and population growth remain strong
- The market feels more predictable than it has in years
For many homeowners, 2026 represents a return to normalcy rather than a turning point.
The Bigger Picture
For local homeowners and buyers, understanding how national headlines actually play out here in Collin and Denton Counties is where real clarity comes from. Our role is to translate the data, the trends, and the timing into guidance that helps each client understand what the market means for their next move.
Prepared by the Kaitlin Lovern Real Estate Team
